About Hedgeye

Hedgeye is a bold, trusted, no-excuses provider of actionable investment research and a premier online financial media company. Our all-star research team is unafraid of rocking the boat and is committed to delivering the highest caliber investment ideas through rigorous quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing.

Hedgeye TV is online financial media for smart investors where we showcase our analysts' leading market and economic insights and ideas. We are committed to unwavering transparency, accountability and trust.

Research Team

Keith McCullough
Strategy

Keith McCullough

Prior to founding Hedgeye Risk Management, Keith built a track record as a successful hedge fund manager at the Carlyle-Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners, and Dawson-Herman Capital Management.

He got his start as an institutional equity sales analyst after earning an economics degree from Yale University, where he captained the hockey team to a Division I Ivy League Championship. Keith regularly appears on financial TV and radio including CNN and Fox Business, and has been a contributor for CNBC and Bloomberg.

He writes regularly for Fortune and Forbes and is the author of the popular book, Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager. He is currently co-chair of the NYC Bipartisan Policy Center, the only Washington, D.C.-based think tank actively promoting bipartisanship to address the key challenges facing the U.S.

Brian McGough
Retail

Brian McGough

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Brian was the executive director in equity research at Morgan Stanley.

Before Morgan Stanley, Brian ran the consumer sector team at Copper Arch Capital, was the director of investor relations at Nike, and started his career as a research analyst at Salomon Brothers and Smith Barney.

Brian holds a master’s degree in finance from Hofstra University. He has also been recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine, and The Wall Street Journal.

Todd Jordan
Gaming | Lodging | Leisure

Todd Jordan

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Todd ran a consumer long/short fund on the Jefferies Asset Management platform and had been a consumer sector head at Cobalt Capital and Ardsley Partners. Earlier, Todd worked as a sell-side analyst at Raymond James, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, and Buckingham Research, winning numerous Wall Street Journal awards for stock picking and earnings accuracy.

Todd holds an M.B.A. in analytical finance from The University of Chicago.

Howard Penney
Restaurants

Howard Penney

Howard Penney is managing director at Hedgeye Risk Management. His research coverage focuses on the restaurant industry and other Consumer Staples sectors in the US. He has nearly two decades of experience following consumer related sectors including tobacco, beverage (including Latin America), gaming and restaurant sectors.

Prior to Hedgeye Risk Management, Howard spent 14 years at Morgan Stanley, including working on the MACRO team covering small company strategy. During his tenure at Morgan Stanley, Howard was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor (Restaurants) and #1 in the WSJ poll (Tobacco). In addition, after Morgan Stanley Howard worked at FBR and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

Howard received his bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from Florida Southern College.

Daryl Jones
Macro

Daryl Jones

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Daryl was the sector head for Basic Materials at HIG Capital's hedge fund, Brightpoint Capital. Earlier, Daryl founded the public investment effort at Onex Corporation, a leading private equity firm. At Hedgeye, Daryl covers commodities, geo-politics and major asset classes outside of equities.

Daryl holds a bachelor’s degree from Yale University and a master’s degree from Columbia University in finance and value investing. While attending Yale University, Daryl played for the men’s ice hockey team.

Josh Steiner
Financials

Josh Steiner

Josh has more than a decade of experience following sectors including specialty finance, general financial services and satellite communications.

Prior to Hedgeye Risk Management, Joshua was an integral part of the number-one ranked Institutional Investor and Greenwich Survey Mortgage, and specialty finance team at Lehman Brothers before moving to the buy-side at Amaranth Group and Millennium Partners. He got his start at CE Unterberg, Towbin covering the satellite communications sector.

Josh holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Rochester.

Financials

Jonathan Casteleyn

Jonathan has more than 10 years of experience following the financial services sector including the broker dealers, asset managers, and exchanges.

Prior to Hedgeye Risk Management, Jonathan was a senior research analyst at Susquehanna International Group (SIG). He also spent seven years covering financials at Wells Fargo Securities, where he was named by Greenwich Associates as a top analyst in the sector.

Jon holds a bachelor of science in finance from Santa Clara University.

Tom Tobin
Healthcare

Tom Tobin

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Tom was the head of healthcare investments at Dawson-Herman Capital Management, which he joined after working as an analyst at W.P. Stewart.

His industry background includes medical research at MZT Holdings and at the Harvard/MGH Cutaneous Biology Research Center.

Tom holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from Vassar College and a master’s degree in biochemistry from Dartmouth College.

Jay Van Sciver
Industrials

Jay Van Sciver

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Jay was a co-founder and partner at Bishop & Carroll Capital Management. He has focused on buy-side research on industrials, materials and consumer durables. Jay also was an industrials sector analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Jay earned a bachelor’s of science degree in chemistry from Yale University.

Consumer Staples

Matt Hedrick

Matt Hedrick is head of consumer staples research, covering tobacco, alcohol, food, and beverage companies for Hedgeye Risk Management.

He is also an associate on the Macro team, covering Europe, and focused on geopolitics, equities and FX. Fortune published his work on Cyprus online during its banking crisis in 2013.

Prior to joining Hedgeye, Matt was an analyst at ESPN. He also played professional ice hockey in Germany after graduating with a bachelor of arts from Yale University.

Energy

Kevin Kaiser

Kevin is a managing director for the energy sector at Hedgeye Risk Management. He was recently named to the Forbes 30 under 30 List, featuring the brightest stars in 15 different fields under the age of 30. He has also appeared on Fox Business News and been quoted in several financial publications including Barron's and The Wall Street Journal for his groundbreaking work on master limited partnerships (MLP).

Kevin holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from Princeton University where he was captain of the men’s hockey team.

Internet & Media

Hesham Shaaban

Hesham Shaaban oversees the internet sector for Hedgeye Risk Management. Prior to joining Hedgeye, he worked as a private equity analyst at Viscogliosi Brothers following equity research roles at Cerulean Capital and Maxim Group.

Hesham holds a bachelor’s of science in finance and marketing from Northeastern University.

Semiconductors

Craig Berger

Craig has covered the Semiconductor sector for 12 years, and is also Hedgeye Risk Management's Technology Sector Head. Prior to joining Hedgeye, Craig was a Managing Director at FBR Capital Markets, and also worked at Wedbush Morgan, and Smith Barney Citigroup.

Previous to this, he spent three years at Intel Corporation in several roles, garnering critical industry experience. Craig has won awards from both Forbes and ThomsonReuters for his sector coverage.

Craig earned his Masters in Professional Accounting and Bachelor of Business degrees from the University of Texas at Austin.

Hedgeye Idea Generation

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Hedgeye 3Q 2014 Macro Themes

#Q3Slowing

Against a backdrop of harder growth and easier inflation compares in 3Q14, the conflation of rising inflation, static nominal wage growth, and an ongoing deceleration in housing should drive a sequential deceleration in domestic economic growth. Growth sentiment, meanwhile, has been improving with 3Q GDP estimates rising as consensus again back-end shifts misguided 1H estimates. We expect that optimism to be marked to [a more dour] reality as we progress through 3Q.

#DollarDevaluation

Given that the Fed's 2H14 and full-year growth forecasts are still too optimistic, the outlook for an easier Fed and future dollar devaluation looks probable. The negative correlations between the dollar and commodity prices should tighten further as the Fed surprises consensus by getting more dovish.

#VolatilityAsymmetry

Across global financial markets, measures of volatility are at historically-depressed levels. While low levels of volatility aren't necessarily a timely harbinger of financial market calamity in and of themselves, other signals - such as the economic cycle rolling over and pervasive complacency among investors and corporations - would seem to suggest we are well into the latter innings of this bull market.

Fixing A Broken Wall Street

People are angry. America is being destroyed from within and most of us feel like all we can do is stand by and watch it happen. Hedgeye's Moshe Silver – a highly regarded Wall Street compliance professional – explains Wall Street's problems and offers concrete solutions.

Crony capitalists and bankers have made lying a global industry. Lawmakers are compromised, regulators are clueless, and the media mostly parrots the worst of what they are told. Silver leads you through the disasters of the last few years, showing why it couldn't have been any other way.

Fixing A Broken Wall Street Buy now at Amazon

Diary of a Hedge fund manager

An insider's view of the high stakes world of money management, Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager is both a practical guide for investors and the deeply personal story of a man who knows the system inside and out.

One of the best young portfolio managers on Wall Street, and helping to run one of the world's most prestigious firms, Keith McCullough finds himself a lone voice of reason as the economic crisis of 2008 looms large. Shown the door, his life takes a fascinating turn into the world of independent research and no-holds-barred criticism.

Diary of a Hedgeye Fund Manager Buy now at Amazon

About Trade: Trend: Tail (durations)

Teamtradetrendtail

Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

  • "Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less
  • "Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more
  • "Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less
Anything longer than 3 years is unpredictable